Euro 2020 Prediction: France still favourites; Germany closes the gap


Here, looks at the updated projections from the OPTA/Stats Perform prediction model.

The Stats Perform Euros Prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome by using betting market odds and team rankings.

The model considers the strength of opponents and the difficulty of the path to the final by using the match outcome probabilities with the composition of the groups and the seedings into the knockout stages.


It also simulates the remainder of Euro 2020 40,000 times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model returns the likelihood of progression for each team at every stage of the tournament to create our final predictions.

Coming into the tournament, our model had France as the favourites to lift the trophy with a 20.5 per cent chance. And although Didier Deschamps’ side were held by Hungary last time out, Les Bleus remain firmly on track for a second consecutive final appearance at the Euros, with a 23.3 per cent chance of winning it all.

Elsewhere, Germany’s impressive response against Portugal has moved them into second-favourite to win the tournament. The model had initially given them the fourth-highest chance ahead of the tournament (9.8 per cent), however they have now leap-frogged Spain and Belgium into second place in the overall projections (now with a 12.2 per cent chance).


In Group D, it is England who remain in command despite their frustrating draw against Scotland. Gareth Southgate’s team – who were the pre-tournament favourites to win their group (64.6 per cent) – now hold a 99.9 per cent chance of qualifying, albeit with a slightly decreased probability in doing so as group winners (57.8 per cent). In terms of their dream of going all the way, the Three Lions currently have the eighth-best chance to scoop the prize (5.8 per cent); one place better than they were ranked at pre-tournament.

Scotland, meanwhile, head into their final game of the group stage with just a 23.9 per cent chance of qualification. The Scots are yet to score a goal from their 30 shots in the tournament so far, and will go into the Croatia game with Group D’s highest chance of finishing in last place (75.7 per cent).

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