Euro 2020 Prediction: France still favourites; Germany closes the gap
Here, myKhel.com looks at the updated projections from the OPTA/Stats Perform prediction model.
The Stats Perform Euros Prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome by using betting market odds and team rankings.
The model considers the strength of opponents and the difficulty of the path to the final by using the match outcome probabilities with the composition of the groups and the seedings into the knockout stages.
It also simulates the remainder of Euro 2020 40,000 times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model returns the likelihood of progression for each team at every stage of the tournament to create our final predictions.
Coming into the tournament, our model had France as the favourites to lift the trophy with a 20.5 per cent chance. And although Didier Deschamps’ side were held by Hungary last time out, Les Bleus remain firmly on track for a second consecutive final appearance at the Euros, with a 23.3 per cent chance of winning it all.
Elsewhere, Germany’s impressive response against Portugal has moved them into second-favourite to win the tournament. The model had initially given them the fourth-highest chance ahead of the tournament (9.8 per cent), however they have now leap-frogged Spain and Belgium into second place in the overall projections (now with a 12.2 per cent chance).
