Joe Biden Win Pumps Up Risk Assets, Dollar Nurses Losses
Shares surged, oil prices jumped and the dollar stayed weak on Monday as expectations of fewer regulatory changes and more monetary stimulus under U.S. president-elect Joe Biden supported risk appetite.
The Democratic candidate’s victory at the U.S. Presidential election was largely priced-in by markets, which had been trading with the view of a Biden presidency and a Republican-controlled U.S. Senate since last week.
E-mini futures for the S&P 500 jumped more than 1.5% on Monday while Nasdaq futures rallied over 2%, signalling a positive start for U.S. markets.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside of Japan jumped 1.3% to 613.95 points, the highest since January 2018. It had climbed 6.2% last week to clock its best weekly performance since early June.
“While lots of attention was given to Trump vs Biden, markets have reacted strongly to the (likely) split congress, which means more confidence that interest rates will be lower for longer,” said Dave Wang, portfolio manager at Nuveen Capital in Singapore.
“The best opportunities now lie within segments of emerging markets, in particular China and North Asia. I believe earnings momentum and valuation put China in a very attractive risk/reward position.”
Chinese shares started higher with the blue-chip CSI300 index up 1% on hopes of better Sino-U.S. trade relations under Biden.
Japan rose 2% while the main indexes of Australia , Hong Kong and South Korea gained 1.7% each.
Equities rallied hard last week, with the S&P500 up 7.3%, clocking the best gains in an election week since 1932, according to National Australia Bank analyst Tapas Strickland.
Matt Sherwood of Australian fund manager Perpetual, however, said Biden’s victory did not necessarily warrant a tweaking of his portfolio.
“In the end, we think the U.S. economy is still fairly fragile and growth’s slowing down,” Sherwood said.
“You could potentially gravitate your portfolio more towards higher-beta type markets, such as emerging markets, and there is potential for better prospects in the energy space than would have been the case with a Democrat clean sweep.”
U.S.-based wealth manager Jim Wilding at Confluence Financial Partners in Pennsylvania added a word of caution with the S&P 500 not far from all-time highs and equity valuations generally at heady levels.
“While we remain positive over the intermediate term outlook and believe divided government reduces the chances of a bear case scenario playing out, we would refrain from unbridled enthusiasm at current levels,” he noted.
A fiscal stimulus plan is still possible despite a divided government, analysts said, though a larger package is less likely. That puts the spotlight on the U.S. Federal Reserve to do more to bolster the world’s largest economy.
As a result, the dollar has weakened in recent days while growth proxies such as the Australian dollar have rallied with the Biden presidency seen less likely to be confrontational on trade.
The dollar was mostly flat against the Japanese yen at 103.31, after slipping about 1.3% last week. The Aussie was up 0.2%, having jumped 3.3% last week.
Investor focus will also be on sterling and the euro this week with UK-EU trade negotiations coming to a head with the EU summit on Nov. 15.
The euro, which climbed 1.9% last week, was a shade higher on Monday at $1.1887. Sterling rose to $1.3183.
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